Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."