Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.